The summer time is right here, which means we’re getting nearer to the beginning of fantasy soccer drafts. Success in these drafts will come from touchdown terrific bargains within the center to late rounds whereas avoiding gamers who might see their numbers decline in comparison with 2021. That latter train isn’t simple, nonetheless, particularly within the case of gamers who’re among the many elite at their place or are coming off breakout seasons within the stat sheets.
Case in level: In 2020, David Montgomery emerged right into a fantasy famous person because the lead operating again in Chicago. He completed fourth in fantasy factors on the place whereas placing up profession highs throughout the board. That success made him a surefire top-20 choice in most 2021 redrafts. Many fantasy people trusted that Montgomery was so good in his breakout marketing campaign that he’d be simply nearly as good the next 12 months. Unfortunately, those that spent a excessive draft choice or public sale bid on him came upon otherwise.
Montgomery had a decent season; it simply wasn’t elite. His yards per carry common went from 4.3 to three.8, and his fantasy factors per recreation common dropped by virtually three factors. He would end because the RB21, or a full 17 spots worse than his 2020 marketing campaign.
The level right here is that fantasy managers trusted Montgomery an excessive amount of after he broke out. Of course, you have been warned about him in case you learn my “Fantasy Case Against” article on the Chicago again heading into 2021. That leads me to proceed the sequence, the place I’ll do my due diligence in gamers who everybody in fantasy land thinks are a positive wager to stay uber-productive after discovering a excessive degree of success in previous years.
Next, let us take a look at the Commanders third-year operating again Antonio Gibson.
Fantasy Case Against: Cooper Kupp | Davante Adams | Deebo Samuel | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Diontae Johnson | Cordarrelle Patterson | Michael Thomas | James Conner | Javonte Williams | DK Metcalf | Amari Cooper | A.J. Brown
Gibson completed a stable tenth in fantasy factors amongst operating backs, outscoring the likes of Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, D’Andre Swift and Dalvin Cook. He posted profession highs in most statistical classes, together with carries, dashing yards, targets, catches, receiving yards, touches, scrimmage yards and fantasy factors. Gibson did all of this regardless of lacking one recreation as a consequence of accidents and shedding touches to veteran J.D. McKissic.
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While he did end tenth in fantasy factors amongst operating backs, Gibson ranked simply nineteenth on the place on a points-per-game foundation for runners who performed in not less than seven video games. He was additionally brutally inconsistent within the stat sheets, scoring fewer than 12 PPR factors seven occasions (44%), together with six video games (37.5%) the place he was held to a single-digit complete. To his credit score, Gibson was very productive in his different 9 video games, scoring 18-plus factors six occasions, together with 5 video games the place he scored greater than 20 fantasy factors.
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Gibson’s 2020 fantasy marketing campaign ranks seventh greatest amongst Washington operating backs primarily based on PPR scoring within the final 20 seasons. Clinton Portis (2004, 2005, 2007, 2008), Alfred Morris (2012) and Ladell Betts (2006) are the lone backs to attain extra factors in a single season throughout that point. Gibson, whose 2020 marketing campaign ranks eighth, is joined by his teammate McKissic (2020) among the many workforce’s 10 greatest operating again seasons. The Commanders retained McKissic, who was a free agent, on a brand new three-year contract.
Coaching & Personnel Changes
The Commanders will proceed to be led by head coach Ron Rivera, whereas offensive coordinator Scott Turner is coming into his third season because the workforce’s offensive play caller. In his first two years in that position, Turner’s offense has produced a top-20 fantasy operating again thrice. Gibson (2020, 2021) has completed tenth and thirteenth in his first two years within the league, whereas the pass-catching McKissic ranked because the RB17 again in 2020.
However, the workforce’s backfield can be a bit extra crowded this season, as Washington chosen Brian Robinson with the No. 98 general choose within the NFL draft. Rivera in contrast the duo of Gibson and Robinson to the one he coached in Carolina, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. That wouldn’t be a fantastic fantasy situation for the previous. Other reviews recommend Robinson might be within the combine for goal-line and short-yardage conditions.
Gibson is a proficient dual-threat runner who already has a top-10 fantasy end on his professional resume, however this offseason has not been a constructive one. McKissic was on his solution to signing with the Buffalo Bills earlier than altering his thoughts and re-signing with the Commanders. That transfer meant that Gibson would once more be restricted by way of his position as a cross catcher. Last season, he misplaced a mean of almost 5 targets per recreation to McKissic, who ranks third amongst operating backs in catches within the final two seasons.
The addition of Robinson can also be a crimson flag, because the rookie might push for these important goal-line alternatives and create even fewer touches for Gibson out of the backfield. When you additionally consider that Washington runners have the seventh-toughest schedule primarily based on 2021 fantasy factors in opposition to knowledge, and Gibson’s draft inventory takes one more hit.
Based on the typical draft place (ADP) knowledge from Fantasy Football Calculator, the veteran is coming off the board because the RB18 at 33.4 general. Those totals drop to RB21 and 58.5 over on the National Fantasy Football Championships web site. Both websites do agree on one factor, although. Gibson shouldn’t be seen as a top-10 fantasy again, and the workforce’s offseason strikes pertaining to its backfield has his draft inventory on the decline.
In my current one-man mock draft, I’ve Gibson coming off the board in Round 4. However, he has fallen into the fifth spherical in some leagues, and that would make him a extra engaging choice for individuals who like to make use of a Zero-RB technique. Still, I count on a lower in touches and fantasy factors for the Commanders runner.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy soccer analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click right here to learn all his articles right here on SI Fantasy. You can comply with Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram in your late-breaking fantasy information and the very best evaluation within the enterprise!